Economists Are Warning That This Fall Is a Bad Time to Be Job Hunting
Fall usually brings a small lift for job seekers as companies come back from summer breaks and start spending the remaining budgets. This year, though, economists say the boost is unlikely to appear. Andrew Flowers, chief economist at Appcast, points out that both hiring and firing are at unusually low levels. That’s frustrating for workers who had hoped that fall would open new doors after a slow summer.
Businesses are facing several headwinds. Higher prices are squeezing consumer spending, tariffs are making planning difficult, and tighter immigration rules have limited labor supply. These factors have caused employers to think twice before bringing on new staff. For white-collar workers, the trend is even harsher. Flowers describes their situation as a “recession” that has dragged on for over two years, with only healthcare keeping overall employment numbers from falling further.
Job Seekers Are Feeling the Pinch
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The hiring slowdown is hitting many workers, especially those in white-collar roles and new graduates. Career coach Mandi Woodruff-Santos said it plainly: “The job market is kind of trash right now.” She explained that if experienced workers are having trouble, college graduates are in for an especially rough ride. Surveys back this up, with more than half of employees worried about layoffs.
Numbers from the government and hiring labs highlight the problem. Job growth in the first eight months of 2025 has been the weakest since 2010, excluding the pandemic crash. Meanwhile, long-term unemployment has now reached its highest level since that period, meaning many job seekers have been looking for half a year or more without luck.
Fall Might Disappoint
Career coach Ruth Sternberg explains that while fall often brings more openings, this year’s slowdown will likely continue. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, calls it an “abundance of caution economy,” where companies are hiring only for essential roles. That caution is why fall is unlikely to bring the hiring surge people are used to. Even with some recent months showing job gains that beat forecasts, economists worry about how hesitant employers seem to be about expanding their teams.
Still, there are ways forward. Sternberg reminds clients that employers do hire year-round, even when the numbers look grim. She stresses the importance of understanding personal strengths, refining résumés and LinkedIn profiles, and contacting hiring managers directly instead of waiting for calls back. These steps, she says, can help candidates stand out when fewer positions are available.
Holding On and Moving Forward
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Economists say a full recession isn’t likely right now, but they warn that if the labor market keeps weakening, it could eventually drag the economy down. For job seekers, it’s a difficult environment, yet hiring never stops completely. Even in a sluggish year like 2025, people continue to land new roles. Fall might not bring a flood of opportunities, but staying prepared improves the chances of finding the right one when it comes along.